UK Beef Imports Rise as Irish Supply Dominates, but Market Shifts Loom
Beef imports into the UK have seen a notable increase in 2024, with Ireland emerging as the dominant supplier. However, a variety of factors have helped offset the impact of this rise, particularly through positive trends in exports from Great Britain (GB). According to Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) latest analysis, the first five months of 2024 have revealed a complex and dynamic beef market.
Elizabeth Swancott, HCC’s senior market intelligence and research officer, highlighted the intricate factors at play. “Supply across Europe remains tight, but beef imports have risen, and UK production is also up, leading to more product available for export,” Swancott explained. Indeed, beef exports from GB grew by nearly 11%, from 41,900 tonnes in 2023 to 46,300 tonnes in 2024, with May’s export figures showing a 20% year-on-year increase.
Ireland’s Role in the UK Market
Ireland remains the UK’s primary beef trading partner, accounting for approximately 30% of the total beef exports. Of the 99,000 tonnes of beef imported into the UK during the first five months of 2024, a striking 77% originated from Ireland, marking an 18% increase compared to the same period last year.
One of the key drivers of this surge has been the growing price gap between British and Irish beef. As British steer prices rose consistently throughout July 2024, Irish beef prices dropped, making Irish beef more competitively priced and driving demand for imports.
Retail demand for beef in Great Britain has remained strong, with data from Kantar showing that volume sales increased by 3% over the 12 weeks leading up to 7th July 2024. This continued consumer interest reflects the success of domestic campaigns such as HCC’s “Uniquely Welsh, Naturally Local,” which boosted awareness of Welsh Beef by 15% and encouraged 21% more shoppers to purchase it.
Potential Market Shifts on the Horizon
Despite the current demand for Irish beef, the market landscape could change towards the end of 2024. Swancott cautioned that the Irish cattle supply is expected to tighten. "Data shows fewer Irish cattle will reach slaughter age later in 2024 and into 2025," she explained, which could affect both availability and pricing for exports.
Long-term forecasts from Bord Bia, Ireland’s food promotion board, suggest a reduction in Irish cattle slaughter by 30,000 to 40,000 head in 2024, equating to a 2% decrease. This tightening supply, combined with similar outlooks for both the EU and UK, suggests that beef prices may strengthen further in the long term, driven by both supply constraints and robust consumer demand.